
Inflation, Rising Bond Yields and Geopolitical Risks Shape the New Trading Week
Markets increasingly seem to be focused on rising concerns around inflation and interest rates this week. While investors had previously expected several rate cuts from central banks over the coming months, that outlook is slowly beginning to shift. And we are seeing that reflected in several stocks within the portfolio. US inflation figures in particular triggered fresh market unease. Not only did consumer prices come in higher than expected, but producer prices also rose sharply. The US Producer Price Index increased by as much as 6% year-on-year, the highest level since late 2022. This suggests that inflationary pressure remains broader and more persistent than markets had previously hoped. That has direct consequences for interest rate expectations. Higher inflation makes it more difficult for central banks to cut rates quickly, while bond yields continue to rise. In the United States especially, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about pricing in future rate cuts. Concerns are also becoming visible in European bond markets. The yield on the UK 10-year government bond has now climbed towards 5.2%, a level not seen in years. This indicates that investors are preparing for a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy and persistent inflation. Higher interest rates also mean more expensive financing, increased pressure on consumers, and a more challenging environment for businesses. At the same time, the economic backdrop is becoming increasingly uncomfortable. Industrial production in the eurozone remains weak, while unemployment continues to rise in some countries. Central bankers are also warning more frequently about signs of stagflation — a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation remains elevated. Geopolitical tensions also continue to weigh heavily on markets. Donald Trump’s visit to China, together with several major American tech CEOs, ultimately delivered little in terms of concrete results. Although both sides maintained a diplomatic and friendly tone, meaningful breakthroughs failed to materialise. Trump once again spoke about creating a more open Chinese market for American companies, but concrete agreements or structural trade deals still appear absent for now. Discussions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz also seem to have made little progress. As a result, uncertainty surrounding energy prices and global trade remains firmly in place. In short, markets are increasingly realising that the combination of high interest rates, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. That appears set to become the central theme of this trading week. At Sharesunderten, we remain satisfied with our current portfolio. We continue to monitor both our holdings and broader market conditions closely and will adjust where necessary. The advantage of our type of stocks is that they remain relatively low-priced while we still see strong fundamental reasons to own them. Moreover, uncertain markets continue to create more penny stock opportunities. SUT therefore remains focused on finding new shares trading below ten pounds — that is what we do best. Auction Technology Group Auction Technology Group released strong half-year results last week, with the combination of growth, margin improvement, and upgraded guidance standing out positively. The market responded enthusiastically, and the share price moved sharply higher. Revenue increased by more than 41% during the first half of fiscal year 2026 to approximately $126 million, while organic growth at constant currency came in at around 8%. In addition, synergy benefits from the Chairish acquisition remain well on track. Management expects annual cost savings of approximately $8 million from the acquisition by 2027. What we also view positively is that profitability remains strong despite significant growth investments. ATG expects a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin between 34.5% and 35.5%, which remains high for a platform business that is still investing heavily in expansion. The balance sheet also continues to improve. Net debt declined towards approximately 1.8x EBITDA, creating additional financial flexibility. More importantly, management showed enough confidence to raise full-year guidance. We view this as a particularly strong signal. In an economic environment that remains volatile, ATG continues to benefit from structural trends such as the digitalisation of auctions and the growth of second-hand platforms. Of course, there are still points of attention. The announced CEO transition creates some short-term uncertainty. However, this does little to change the broader story in our view. Operational momentum remains strong, cash flows continue to improve, and ATG’s strategic position within online auctions keeps strengthening. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive on Auction Technology Group and continues to hold the stock firmly within the portfolio. Marston’s Marston’s released half-year figures last week that failed to fully convince the market. Revenue declined slightly, while like-for-like sales growth also remained weak, falling by approximately 1.5%. However, we believe it is important to look beyond the headline numbers. Underneath the surface, we still see several elements that confirm why we previously added the stock to the portfolio. Margins remained relatively stable, while operating profit even improved slightly thanks to cost control and more efficient pub management. In addition, management maintained confidence in full-year 2026 expectations. Our original investment case therefore remains largely unchanged. In our view, Marston’s remains a recovery story where the market is primarily focused on the short term, while the underlying operational foundation continues to improve gradually. The balance sheet is steadily strengthening, the property portfolio retains significant value, and the company stands to benefit disproportionately once UK consumer confidence begins to normalise. We therefore do not necessarily view the share price reaction following these results as a deterioration of the long-term story, but rather as another example of the market reacting with a short-term focus. For members who have not yet built a position, this pullback may therefore offer an interesting entry opportunity. Ashtead Technology Over recent months, Ashtead Technology has been one of the stronger positions within the portfolio. Since our purchase, the stock has risen significantly, delivering almost 40% in gains. In a relatively short period of time, the company has therefore achieved a large portion of the expected upside potential. Fundamentally, the story behind the business remains attractive. The company continues to benefit from structural investment in offshore