
Markets Search for Direction, Individual Stocks Make the Difference
It is becoming increasingly clear what impact the war in Iran is having on the global economy and Western countries. While the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza had only limited direct economic consequences for many European consumers, the situation with Iran is different. The reason is simple: oil. In recent weeks, it has become painfully clear how much economic activity is ultimately tied to the oil price. Higher oil prices not only mean more expensive fuel at the pump, but also higher transportation costs, more expensive production processes and rising energy bills. As a result, consumers have less money left to spend on other goods and services. This could slow economic growth at a time when many economies are cautiously emerging from a period of high inflation. Despite this, stock markets have remained relatively resilient. One reason is that investors are becoming increasingly selective. After the strong market gains of recent years, expectations are high and companies are being judged more individually on their own performance. Strong results are rewarded, while disappointments are punished quickly and sometimes severely. This is precisely why individual stocks appear to be more important than the indices themselves at the moment. While many indices are trading near record highs, significant differences are emerging beneath the surface between winners and losers. This fits well with the philosophy of SharesUnderTen. Rather than trying to predict where an index will be next month, we focus on identifying individual companies with attractive valuations, healthy balance sheets and clear catalysts for future share price appreciation. History also shows that indices are constantly changing. Companies that once dominated the FTSE have disappeared, while new names have taken their place. Ultimately, successful investing is not about following an index, but about selecting strong businesses capable of creating long-term value for shareholders. The coming week will be largely focused on inflation and central banks. On Wednesday, the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released. Investors expect inflation to have risen further to 4.2% year-on-year, partly due to higher energy prices. A higher inflation reading could push expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts further into the future. Attention then shifts to Europe on Thursday, when the European Central Bank announces its latest interest rate decision, followed by a press conference from ECB President Christine Lagarde. The week concludes on Friday with UK GDP data, providing investors with additional insight into the health of the British economy and the room available for future Bank of England rate cuts. Rolls-Royce News surrounding Rolls-Royce remained positive over the past week. The company secured several notable contracts, including a major battery energy storage project in Latvia, further strengthening its position within the energy transition market. Demand for aircraft engine maintenance and servicing also remains strong, continuing to be the company’s primary earnings driver. The outlook for the aviation sector remains favourable as well. Global air traffic continues to increase, resulting in more flying hours for airlines and therefore greater maintenance requirements. This provides strong and predictable cash flows within Rolls-Royce’s highly profitable Civil Aerospace division. Last week, we decided to sell part of our position. Following the substantial share price appreciation of recent years, we felt it was prudent to lock in some profits. However, this does not change our confidence in the remaining position. Operational performance continues to improve, order intake remains strong and management is executing its strategy successfully. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive on Rolls-Royce. While the stock is no longer as cheap as it was several years ago, we still see a high-quality business benefiting from long-term growth trends across aviation, defence and energy. For that reason, we are pleased to remain invested after taking partial profits. BP At BP, the main focus over the past week was the continued simplification of its portfolio. According to several media reports, the company is in advanced discussions with Ithaca Energy regarding the sale of a number of North Sea assets for approximately £2 billion. Such a transaction fits well within the strategy of CEO Murray Auchincloss, who has placed greater emphasis on profitable oil and gas operations and freeing up capital since taking over leadership. BP also continued streamlining its organisation. It was announced that operational responsibilities for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline will be transferred to Azerbaijan’s state oil company. This aligns with the broader strategy of allocating capital more efficiently and optimising the portfolio. The oil price remains the most important factor influencing sentiment towards BP. Developments in Iran and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect energy markets. At the same time, BP is demonstrating that it is actively strengthening its balance sheet and improving shareholder returns regardless of oil price movements. BP remains attractively valued, offers a strong dividend yield and could benefit from additional financial flexibility through its ongoing asset disposals. We therefore remain positive on the stock and view these developments as confirmation that the company is moving in the right strategic direction. Sunny Optical Sunny Optical announced that it is considering issuing approximately RMB 3 billion in so-called Dim Sum Bonds. At first glance, this may seem surprising given the company’s strong balance sheet and more than 70% profit growth in 2025. However, we view this primarily as a logical financial decision. The proceeds from the new bond issue are expected to be used to refinance an existing $400 million bond, equivalent to approximately RMB 2.7 billion, which matures in July 2026. Rather than paying off the entire amount from its cash reserves, Sunny Optical is choosing to refinance the debt under favourable terms. This allows the company to maintain financial flexibility for future investments in research and development while also reducing part of its currency exposure. The existing debt is denominated in US dollars, whereas the new bonds will be issued in Chinese renminbi. Since the majority of Sunny Optical’s revenue and earnings are generated in renminbi, this creates a better match between its income and liabilities. SharesUnderTen does not view this move as