
Earnings Season Begins as Middle East Tensions Rise
After several relatively quiet weeks, financial markets were once again shaken by geopolitical developments. US President Donald Trump announced that negotiations with Iran had come to an end for the time being, causing tensions in the Middle East to escalate once again. Oil prices moved higher, bond yields edged up, while equity markets came under pressure. It served as another reminder of just how sensitive financial markets remain to geopolitical events. Uncertainty increased further after the United States launched additional strikes against military targets in Iran. According to Washington, the attacks were aimed at facilities believed to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump also announced on Monday that the United States intends to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz by introducing a 20% levy on cargo passing through the waterway. Iran immediately rejected the proposal, leaving the outlook highly uncertain. Until greater clarity emerges, oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to further developments. Meanwhile, earnings season is now officially underway. Later today, the major US banks will traditionally kick off reporting season, giving investors the first indication of how corporate America performed during the first half of the year. In Europe, attention will later shift to companies such as ASML. Within our portfolio, ME Group published a strong trading update yesterday, which we discuss in more detail below. Most of our other portfolio companies will report later this month and into early August, when earnings season gathers momentum. On the macroeconomic front, investors will primarily focus on US inflation data today. Producer price inflation follows on Wednesday, while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is also scheduled to testify before Congress. On Thursday, the UK will publish its latest GDP figures. The US inflation data will be particularly important for expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. If inflation continues to moderate, expectations for a rate cut later this year are likely to strengthen. As a result, this week could prove important not only for corporate earnings but also for the direction of financial markets during the second half of the year. Envipco When we added Envipco to the portfolio, we did so because we believed strongly in its long-term growth potential. The rollout of deposit return schemes across Europe represents an attractive structural growth opportunity, and the company appeared well positioned to benefit. At the same time, we recognised that execution would be critical. Unfortunately, this is precisely where the company has disappointed. The publication of its annual report has now been postponed several times: first from late April to 15 May, then to 10 July, and now once again to 11 July. Although Envipco maintains that its previously published preliminary results remain unchanged, we consider this sequence of delays unacceptable for a listed company. Strong corporate governance and transparent communication are just as important to us as growth potential. When a company repeatedly fails to deliver its financial reporting on time, it undermines our confidence. We have therefore decided to exit our position. While the long-term opportunity may still exist, we believe there are currently better places to allocate our capital. Auction Technology Group News flow surrounding the company remained relatively quiet over the past week, but that is certainly not a negative development. In fact, during periods without major company-specific news, we have seen market sentiment gradually improve. The share price has been recovering steadily over recent weeks and appears to be rebuilding momentum. In addition, RBC Capital Markets recently raised its price target for Auction Technology Group, which aligns well with our own view that the market continues to underestimate the quality of the business. ATG benefits from a strong platform model, high levels of recurring revenue and attractive margins, while the ongoing digitalisation of the auction industry still provides significant growth opportunities. In our opinion, the current valuation remains attractive for a company with these characteristics. We therefore see no reason to change our investment thesis and continue to hold the shares. Banijay Group Banijay has completed the merger between Banijay Entertainment and All3Media alongside RedBird IMI. The combined business is expected to generate approximately €50 million of annual cost synergies within its first year. In addition, Banijay Group will receive €801 million in cash from the transaction. A significant portion of these proceeds will be returned directly to shareholders through a special dividend of €0.93 per share. This transaction not only creates strategic value through consolidation but also delivers an immediate cash return to shareholders. We therefore remain positive on Banijay and continue to hold the shares. ME Group Yesterday morning, ME Group released a strong first-half trading update. Although revenue increased by just 0.3%, EBITDA rose by 7.1%, driven by the continued rapid growth of its laundry business. The temporary slowdown experienced in April, caused by geopolitical uncertainty and weaker demand for passport photos, already appears to be behind the company. Revenue generated by its vending operations increased by 11.1% year-on-year in May, with this positive trend continuing into June. The most encouraging news lies in the company’s growth outlook. The rollout of Wash.ME machines continues to accelerate, with management targeting the installation of 1,300 additional laundry units this year. Furthermore, ME Group signed a record agreement with ASDA that could eventually expand to around 700 locations. The company also secured extensions to several important long-term contracts in France. The laundry division now accounts for more than 38% of group revenue and an impressive 54% of EBITDA, further improving the overall quality of earnings. Management reiterated its full-year 2026 profit before tax guidance of £69 million to £74 million and confirmed that trading has normalised since May. Investors have responded positively to the update, which is understandable. The temporary headwinds appear to have passed, while the company’s long-term growth engine continues to strengthen. We remain very satisfied with this update. Grafton Group Grafton’s first-half trading update reinforces our positive outlook. Despite ongoing weakness in the UK construction market, group revenue increased by 6.7% to £1.34 billion. Strong performances