
Inflation, Oil and Debt Keep Markets on Edge
From a macroeconomic perspective, the Middle East remains the main issue weighing on markets, although the initial panic reaction appears to be fading. Where investors had previously responded very sharply to every new headline, the conflict now seems to be slipping more into the background. Despite fresh US strikes on targets in southern Iran, there has so far been no real escalation in the financial markets. Oil prices have also reacted less dramatically than before. Brent crude has now fallen back below $100 per barrel, suggesting that investors are still pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic solution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, rising inflation and interest rate concerns remain a key theme for equity markets. For a long time, markets expected several rate cuts from central banks, but that picture is now beginning to shift. Higher energy prices and sticky inflation mean central banks will likely need to remain cautious for longer. Bond markets in particular are already sending clear signals, with yields rising in both the United States and Europe. This is putting more pressure on highly valued growth stocks and companies with heavy debt burdens. Investors are also taking a more critical view of the enormous level of investment in AI. Several analysts warn that an increasing share of those investments is being financed through debt. As long as operating cash flows remain strong, that is not necessarily a problem. But if companies can no longer support their investment levels with cash flow generation, credit downgrades may follow and profitability could come under pressure. The technology sector in particular is therefore facing more scrutiny on valuations. According to Shares Underten analysts, stock picking is therefore becoming increasingly important. In a market where money is no longer free, attention is shifting back to companies with strong balance sheets, healthy cash flows, profitability and attractive valuations. According to Shares Underten, volatile markets create opportunities for investors willing to look beyond the short term. Those willing to think small can grow big as investors. On the macro front, the Chicago Fed Index came in positive and once again pointed to an acceleration in the US economy. This week, the focus is mainly on important US macroeconomic data. On Thursday, markets will receive the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside preliminary US GDP growth data. On Friday, investors will focus in particular on a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Grafton Group Grafton released a trading update covering the first four months of 2026. Revenue rose by 3.2% to £830.1 million, while like-for-like revenue remained stable. Ireland, Northern Europe and Iberia all delivered growth, while the UK performed more weakly due to a difficult construction market and cautious consumer spending. Grafton also continues to invest actively in growth. The company recently completed acquisitions in Spain and Ireland, further strengthening its position in two fast-growing markets. Shares Underten sees the expansion in Iberia and the company’s increasing exposure to the Irish new-build market as particularly positive for the longer term. Despite the weak UK market, Grafton still expects adjusted operating profit for full-year 2026 to come in between £190 million and £200 million. The company also has a strong balance sheet and continues to buy back shares, underlining management’s confidence. While market conditions remain challenging in the short term, Shares Underten still sees long-term potential in Grafton Group. Its geographic diversification, strong market positions and focus on growth mean the shares remain in the portfolio. Vanquis Banking This UK banking stock is still relatively new to the portfolio, and the share price has so far moved fairly quietly. Even so, Shares Underten sees considerable potential in this specialist British lender. While Vanquis was once mainly known for riskier lending, the company has deliberately changed course under CEO Ian McLaughlin. The focus is shifting increasingly towards safer lending and a more stable credit portfolio. The market still seems to judge Vanquis on its past, while the numbers show that the recovery is becoming increasingly structural. The bank returned to profitability again in the first quarter, while the loan book continues to grow and credit quality remains stable. That last point is crucial according to Shares Underten, as that is where the company historically ran into problems. In addition, operational leverage is becoming increasingly visible. Vanquis is investing heavily in automation and AI, which should materially reduce its cost base in the years ahead. That means profits could eventually grow faster than revenues. In valuation terms, Shares Underten also continues to see the stock as attractive. The shares still trade well below tangible book value per share. If the market gains more confidence in the structural recovery and the new strategy, part of that gap could close. Shares Underten therefore remains positive on Vanquis Banking and sees the stock as a classic recovery story with longer-term upside. Kudelski Kudelski’s share price performance in recent weeks has undoubtedly been disappointing. The decline appears to be mainly driven by concerns over profitability and weak market sentiment towards smaller technology companies. Analysts have recently cut their earnings expectations sharply, putting additional pressure on the stock. Kudelski also continues to carry a relatively high debt burden. The 2025 annual results did little to reassure investors. Revenue came in around 9% below analysts’ expectations and, while the net loss narrowed, the company remained loss-making. The stock has also underperformed the broader market for some time and is now trading below its 200-day moving average, which is not a strong technical signal. The broader market environment is not helping either. European equity markets are under pressure from geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs, with smaller technology companies particularly sensitive to negative sentiment. Even so, Shares Underten is maintaining its buy recommendation. Kudelski is in the middle of a restructuring process, with the business increasingly shifting its focus towards cybersecurity and IoT. At the same time, the company is working on cost reductions to improve profitability.




